Good morning and happy Monday! We get back into some scheduled housing data beginning tomorrow when we look at home prices via FHFA and Case Shiller. The street is looking for almost +2.0% rises on each on a month-to-month basis. We made the point last week that many of the 8 million available jobs in the U.S. would start filling quickly when the homeowners and renters in forbearance and rent moratorium programs begin facing foreclosure and eviction. We’re seeing that same concept play out in states that have cut back on the Biden administration’s unemployment program. Their populations are leaving the unemployment rolls at an accelerated rate. We revisit the structure of housing’s influence in the CPI with the use of the smoothing tactic of OER (Owner’s Equivalent Rent). We note that inflation has rarely been recognized as a national problem since this accounting trick was initiated in 1983.
From https://www.bls.gov/cpi/factsheets/owners-equivalent-rent-and-rent.pdf
Bonds today are up marginally, with the 1.625% 10yr T-Note +2/32 to $100-31 to yield 1.51%. In MBS land FNMA 30yr 2.50% are -2/32 to $103-04, which yields 1.82% and is +87 basis points to the 5.1yr treasury curve. Have a great Monday, and call or email if you have any MBS inquiries.
Cherry Picks
10 Year Fixed
15 Year Fixed
20 Year Fixed
30 Year Fixed
Agency CMBS
Agency CMO – 3 Year
Agency CMO – 5 Year
Agency CMO – Long End
Jim Tait is a registered representative with and offers securities through Hanover Securities, Inc. (Hanover), Member FINRA & SIPC. Although this information has been obtained from sources we believe reliable, we do not guarantee its accuracy, and it may be incomplete or condensed. This is for information purposes only and is not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any security. Securities that may be shown are subject to availability and changes in price. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Changes in any assumptions may have a material effect on projected results.
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